Above Average

At the beginning of Atlantic hurricane season in June, all forecasters that I'm aware of predicted that it would be above average in intensity. It's now halfway through the season, and there has been practically no tropical activity of any sort -- just one tropical storm so far, and that was before the season officially began on June 1. This lack of activity doesn't necessarily mean anything: the second half of the season is more dangerous than the first half, particularly for those of us in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, because the higher ocean temperatures later in the year are more conducive to storm formation and propagation. Hurricane Katrina made landfall in late August, Hurricane Rita in late September. Still, was there ever any doubt that meteorologists would predict an above average season? There's no glory in being right about a below average or average season, and nobody was ever a goat for being wrong about a doom-and-gloom weather prediction. But imagine the downside if a meteorologist predicted a below average season and a Category 5 hurricane slammed into Florida or Mississippi or Texas. All of the incentives that really matter encourage meteorologists to predict the worst.

Edit: Sure enough, as soon as I post this, we get another tropical storm. It looks like Tropical Storm Chantal is unlikely to strengthen into a hurricane or to threaten any landmass except perhaps Iceland.